Farashin kayayyakin karafa a kasuwannin cikin gida ya tashi sama a cikin watan Maris, kuma yana da wuya a ci gaba da hauhawa a cikin lokaci na gaba, don haka ya kamata kananan sauye-sauye ya zama babban yanayin.
A watan Maris, bukatun kasuwannin cikin gida ya yi karfi, kuma farashin kayayyakin karafa ya tashi sama, kuma karuwar ya zarce na watan da ya gabata.Tun farkon watan Afrilu, farashin karafa ya tashi da farko sannan kuma ya fadi, gaba daya yana ci gaba da hawa sama.
1. Kididdigar farashin karfen cikin gida na kasar Sin ya tashi wata-wata.
A cewar sa ido na Karfe da KarfeAbokan hulɗakan,A karshen watan Maris, alkaluman farashin karafa na kasar Sin (CSPI) ya kai maki 136.28, ya karu da maki 4.92 daga karshen watan Fabrairu, ya karu da kashi 3.75%, yayin da ya karu da maki 37.07 a duk shekara, wanda ya karu da maki 37.07. 37.37%.(Duba ƙasa)
Jadawalin tarihin China Steel Price Index (CSPI).
- Farashin manyan kayayyakin karafa ya tashi.
A karshen watan Maris, farashin dukkan manyan nau’o’in karafa guda takwas da kungiyar tama da karafa ke sanya ido a kai ya karu.Daga cikin su, farashin faranti na kusurwa, matsakaita da nauyi, naɗaɗɗen zafi da bututu masu zafi sun ƙaru sosai, wanda ya tashi da yuan / ton 286, yuan / ton 242, yuan / ton 231 da yuan / ton 289 bi da bi. daga watan da ya gabata;Haɓakar farashin rebar, takarda mai sanyi da kuma takardar galvanized ya ɗan yi kadan, ya karu da yuan/ton 114, yuan/ton 158, yuan/ton 42 da yuan/ton 121 bi da bi daga watan da ya gabata.(Duba teburin da ke ƙasa)
Tebur na canje-canje a farashin da fihirisar manyan samfuran karfe
2.Analysis na canje-canjen abubuwan da ke canza farashin karfe a kasuwannin gida.
A cikin Maris, kasuwannin cikin gida sun shiga lokacin koli na amfani da karafa, buƙatun ƙarfe na ƙasa ya yi ƙarfi, farashin kasuwannin duniya ya tashi, fitar da kayayyaki kuma ya ci gaba da bunƙasa, tsammanin kasuwa ya karu, farashin karafa ya ci gaba da hauhawa.
- (1) Babban masana'antar karfe yana da kwanciyar hankali kuma yana inganta, kuma buƙatar karfe yana ci gaba da girma.
Bisa kididdigar da Hukumar Kididdiga ta kasa ta yi, jimillar GDP a cikin rubu'in farko ya karu da kashi 18.3% a duk shekara, kashi 0.6% daga rubu'i na hudu na shekarar 2020, da kashi 10.3% daga rubu'in farko na shekarar 2019;Kafaffen kadarori na kasa (ban da gidajen karkara) ya karu da kashi 25.6 a duk shekara.Daga cikin su, zuba jarin kayayyakin more rayuwa ya karu da kashi 29.7% a duk shekara, zuba jarin raya gidaje ya karu da kashi 25.6% a duk shekara, sannan sabbin gidaje da aka fara ya karu da kashi 28.2%.A cikin Maris, ƙimar da aka ƙara na kamfanonin masana'antu sama da girman da aka ƙayyade ya karu da kashi 14.1% na shekara-shekara.Daga cikin su, masana'antar kera kayan aikin gabaɗaya ya karu da kashi 20.2%, masana'antar kera kayan aiki na musamman ya karu da kashi 17.9%, masana'antar kera motoci ta karu da kashi 40.4%, layin dogo, jirgi, sararin samaniya da sauran masana'antar kera kayan sufuri ya karu da 9.8%, da kuma injinan lantarki da masana'antar kera kayan aiki ya karu da kashi 24.1%.Kwamfuta, sadarwa da sauran masana'antun kera kayan aikin lantarki sun karu da kashi 12.2%.Gaba ɗaya, tattalin arzikin ƙasa ya fara da kyau a cikin rubu'in farko, kuma masana'antar karafa ta ƙasa tana da buƙatu mai ƙarfi.
- (2) Samar da karafa ya kiyaye babban matakin, kuma fitar da karfe ya karu sosai.
Dangane da kididdigar kungiyar Iron da Karfe, a cikin Maris, fitar da baƙin ƙarfe na alade, ɗanyen ƙarfe da ƙarfe na ƙasa (ban da kayan maimaitawa) ya kasance tan miliyan 74.75, tan miliyan 94.02 da tan miliyan 11.87, bi da bi, sama da kashi 8.9%. 19.1% da 20.9% kowace shekara;Abubuwan da aka fitar na karfen yau da kullun sun kai tan miliyan 3.0329, matsakaicin karuwa na 2.3% a cikin watanni biyun farko.Bisa kididdigar da hukumar kwastam ta yi, a watan Maris, yawan kayayyakin karafa da kasar ta fitar ya kai tan miliyan 7.54, wanda ya karu da kashi 16.4 bisa dari a duk shekara;kayayyakin karafa da aka shigo da su sun kai tan miliyan 1.32, karuwar kashi 16.0% a duk shekara;Yawan karafa da aka fitar ya kai tan miliyan 6.22, wanda ya karu da kashi 16.5 cikin dari a duk shekara.Samar da karafa a kasuwannin cikin gida ya sami babban matsayi, fitar da karafa ya ci gaba da dawowa, kuma yanayin wadata da bukatu a kasuwar karafa ya tsaya tsayin daka.
- (3) An gyara farashin ma'adinan da ake shigowa da su daga waje da kuma coal coke, kuma farashin gabaɗaya ya yi tsada.
Bisa kididdigar da kungiyar Iron da Karfe ta yi, a karshen watan Maris, farashin ma'adinan ma'adinan cikin gida ya karu da yuan 25/ton, farashin tama da ake shigo da su (CIOPI) ya fadi da dalar Amurka 10.15, sannan farashin ya ragu da dalar Amurka 10.15. na coking kwal da karafa coke ya fadi da yuan 45/ton da 559 yuan/ton bi da bi.Ton, farashin dattin karfe ya karu da yuan 38/ton duk wata.Idan aka yi la’akari da yanayin shekara-shekara, tama na cikin gida yana mai da hankali da ma’adinan da ake shigowa da su daga waje ya karu da kashi 55.81% da 93.22%, coke coke coke and metallurgical prices ya tashi da kashi 7.97% da 26.20%, sannan farashin karafa ya tashi da kashi 32.36%.Farashin albarkatun kasa da man fetur suna ƙarfafawa a babban matakin, wanda zai ci gaba da tallafawa farashin karfe.
3.Farashin kayayyakin karafa a kasuwannin duniya ya ci gaba da hauhawa, kuma karuwar karuwa a wata-wata.
A watan Maris, ma'aunin farashin karfe na kasa da kasa (CRU) ya kasance maki 246.0, karuwar maki 14.3 ko 6.2% a wata-wata, karuwar maki 2.6 a cikin watan da ya gabata;ya karu da maki 91.2 ko kuma 58.9% sama da daidai wannan lokacin a bara.(Dubi adadi da tebur a ƙasa)
Jadawalin farashin Karfe na Duniya (CRU).
4.Analysis na farashin Trend na kasuwar karfe daga baya.
A halin yanzu, kasuwar karafa tana cikin lokacin bukatu da yawa.Saboda dalilai kamar ƙuntatawa na kariyar muhalli, tsammanin rage samarwa da haɓakar fitar da kayayyaki, ana sa ran farashin ƙarfe a kasuwa na gaba zai tsaya tsayin daka.Duk da haka, saboda karuwar girma a farkon lokaci da kuma saurin girma, wahalar watsawa zuwa masana'antun da ke ƙasa ya karu, kuma yana da wuya farashin ya ci gaba da karuwa a cikin lokaci na gaba, kuma ƙananan canje-canje ya kamata ya kasance. babban dalili.
- (1) Ana sa ran bunkasar tattalin arzikin duniya zai inganta, kuma bukatar karafa na ci gaba da karuwa
Idan aka dubi yanayin kasa da kasa, yanayin tattalin arzikin duniya yana ci gaba da inganta.Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF) ya fitar da "Rahoton Haɗin Kan Tattalin Arziki na Duniya" a ranar 6 ga Afrilu, yana hasashen cewa tattalin arzikin duniya zai haɓaka da 6.0% a cikin 2021, sama da 0.5% daga hasashen Janairu;Ƙungiyar Ƙarfe ta Duniya ta fitar da hasashen ɗan gajeren lokaci a ranar 15 ga Afrilu A cikin 2021, buƙatar ƙarfe na duniya zai kai ton biliyan 1.874, karuwar 5.8%.Daga cikin su, kasar Sin ta karu da kashi 3.0%, ban da kasashe da yankuna, ban da kasar Sin, wadanda suka karu da kashi 9.3%.Idan aka dubi yanayin cikin gida, kasata tana cikin shekarar farko ta "Shirin shekaru biyar na 14".Yayin da tattalin arzikin cikin gida ke ci gaba da farfadowa a hankali, ana ci gaba da karfafa kariyar abubuwan ayyukan zuba jari, kuma za a ci gaba da samun ci gaba da samun karko na karko na farfado da zuba jari a nan gaba.“Har yanzu akwai tarin saka hannun jari wajen sauya masana’antu na gargajiya da kuma inganta masana’antu masu tasowa, wanda ke da tasiri mai karfi kan bukatar masana’antu da karafa.
- (2) Samar da karafa ya kasance a matsayi mai girma, kuma yana da wahala farashin karfe ya tashi sosai.
Bisa kididdigar da kungiyar ta kara da cewa, a cikin kwanaki goma na farkon watan Afrilu, yawan danyen karafa na yau da kullum (caliber) na manyan kamfanonin karafa ya karu da kashi 2.88 cikin 100 duk wata, kuma an yi kiyasin cewa danyen karafa na kasar ya karu. fitarwar ya karu da 1.14% a wata-wata.Daga hangen nesa na yanayin samar da kayayyaki, "duba baya" na raguwar ƙarfin ƙarfe da ƙarfe, rage yawan kayan aikin ƙarfe, da kuma kula da muhalli yana gab da farawa, kuma yana da wuyar fitar da danyen karfe ya karu sosai a ciki. lokacin daga baya.Daga bangaren bukatu, saboda saurin karuwar farashin karafa tun watan Maris, masana'antun karafa na kasa kamar ginin jiragen ruwa da na'urorin gida ba za su iya jure ci gaba da inganta farashin karafa ba, kuma farashin karafa na gaba ba zai iya ci gaba da hauhawa ba.
- (3) Abubuwan ƙirƙira ƙarfe sun ci gaba da raguwa, kuma an rage matsa lamba na kasuwa a cikin lokaci na gaba.
Sakamakon saurin bunƙasa buƙatu a kasuwannin cikin gida, samfuran ƙarfe sun ci gaba da raguwa.A farkon Afrilu, daga hangen nesa na zamantakewar jama'a, yawan jama'a na manyan kayayyakin karafa biyar a cikin birane 20 sun kasance tan miliyan 15.22, wanda ya ragu na kwanaki uku a jere.Tarar da aka tara ya kai tan miliyan 2.55 daga babban matsayi a cikin shekarar, raguwar 14.35%;raguwar tan miliyan 2.81 duk shekara.15.59%.Dangane da kididdigar ma'auni na masana'antar karafa, mahimmin kididdigar kungiyar ta karfe da karafa na kayayyakin sarrafa karafa sun kai ton miliyan 15.5, wanda ya karu daga rabin farkon wata, amma idan aka kwatanta da babban matsayi a wannan shekarar, ya fadi da 2.39. ton miliyan, raguwar 13.35%;an samu raguwar tan miliyan 2.45 a duk shekara, ya samu raguwar kashi 13.67%.Kayayyakin kasuwanci da kayan aikin zamantakewa sun ci gaba da raguwa, kuma an ƙara rage matsa lamba na kasuwa a cikin lokaci na gaba.
5. Manyan batutuwan da ya kamata a kula da su a kasuwa ta gaba:
- Na farko, matakin samar da karafa yana da yawa, kuma daidaiton wadata da bukatu yana fuskantar kalubale.Daga watan Janairu zuwa Maris na wannan shekara, yawan danyen karafa na kasar ya kai tan miliyan 271, wanda ya karu da kashi 15.6 cikin dari a duk shekara, inda aka samu babban matakin da ake samarwa.Samar da kasuwa da daidaiton buƙatu na fuskantar ƙalubale, kuma akwai babban gibi tsakanin buƙatun rage yawan kayan da ake samarwa a kowace shekara a ƙasar.Kamfanonin ƙarfe da ƙarfe ya kamata su tsara saurin samarwa da hankali, daidaita tsarin samfur bisa ga canje-canjen buƙatun kasuwa, da haɓaka daidaiton wadatar kasuwa da buƙatu.
- Na biyu, hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi da man fetur ya kara matsin lamba ga kamfanonin karafa don rage farashi da kuma kara inganci.Dangane da sa ido na kungiyar tama da karafa, a ranar 16 ga watan Afrilu, CIOPI ta shigo da taman taman da ta kai dalar Amurka $176.39/ton, karuwar da aka samu a duk shekara da kashi 110.34%, wanda ya yi yawa fiye da karuwar farashin karafa.Farashin kayan masarufi irin su taman ƙarfe, tarkace, da coal coke na ci gaba da yin tsada, wanda hakan zai ƙara matsin lamba ga kamfanonin ƙarfe da karafa don rage tsadar kayayyaki tare da haɓaka inganci a matakai na gaba.
- Na uku, tattalin arzikin duniya yana fuskantar matsalolin da ba su da tabbas kuma fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ketare na fuskantar matsaloli masu yawa.A ranar Juma'ar da ta gabata ne hukumar lafiya ta duniya ta gudanar da wani taron manema labarai inda ta bayyana cewa, a cikin watanni biyun da suka gabata, adadin masu kamuwa da sabbin masu kamuwa da cutar korona a duk mako ya kusan rubanya a duk mako, kuma yana kara kusantowa mafi girman kamuwa da cutar tun bayan barkewar cutar, wanda zai haifar da ja da farfado da tattalin arzikin duniya da bukatar.Bugu da kari, ana iya daidaita manufar rajin harajin harajin karafa na cikin gida, sannan fitar da karafa na fuskantar matsaloli masu yawa.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-22-2021